The math is just bad. If Ras shows the race tied again today, I’m writing it off. A D+4, D+5, D+6 turnout model simply isn’t believable.
The conventional wisdom is its 2008 all over again. Its simply wrong. That’s what happens when the media and the pollsters follow the herd.
If your assumption is wrong, then the data isn’t a good fit for it. GIGO.
GIGO?