The article doesn’t mention how big Obama’s lead is among early/absentee voters. That would give us a better idea of the ground Romney will need to make up on Tuesday. Still, +13 on election day is great.
The info I’m seeing suggests that early voting was just under 30% of the total vote in Ohio in 2008, and is on track to be similar this year. That tells me that Obama would need an astronomical (and basically impossible) early vote advantage to make up for a 13-point split on election day.
ok, he wins the early vote, wins independents and wins election day voters and its still close??
The low-down on the Keystone State:
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
So assume:
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ‘04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Then:
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/jsavqc
Only concern is R +2 with Indy’s that is low that could be issue, hopefully not but that isn’t a good number for the indy vote.
Poll ping.