OH: Early Vote down 370,000 from 08

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[LS]

RT @justkarl: Early voting in OH. 2008: 1,628,013. 10/30/12: 1,257,320.

Again, Obama won 08 by 260,000 and piled up a 20 point lead in early voting. Still think it will be close?

[LS]

Nope.

[Maine Mariner]

And if it is not close the rats cannot steal the election.
Yes they can find a ballot box in the back of car or
hold off reporting for a few hours to get a few thousand
extra votes but they cannot manufacture 100,000 to 200,000
votes.

[Red Steel]

Nope = Obama. Hehe...

Good job on keeping us informed about Ohio LS. :-)

[ScottinVA]

Any info on the D vs R breakdown?

[Wright Wing]

Wow. Thought you meant Obama won the early voter amount by 200,000 votes not overall. If McCain came that close in 08 this can’t be close. Doesn’t make sense.

What could make this close and this is my gut. Kasich is not that popular in Ohio and there may be an anti-Republican sentiment. Only reason this should be close.

[DallasBiff]

What could make this close and this is my gut. Kasich is not that popular in Ohio and there may be an anti-Republican sentiment. Only reason this should be close.

Actually Kasich is over 50% in aprroval now in Ohio, currently.

[LS]

Kasich is a total non-factor in this race. He doesn’t come up in ads, one way or another.

[USS Alaska]

What could make this close and this is my gut. Kasich is not that popular in Ohio and there may be an anti-Republican sentiment. Only reason this should be close.

Leave the gut feelings to Leroy Jethro, you've got gas in the lower intestine.

Go fart in the bathroom, you'll feel better.

Kasich is polling at 54% ++++++.

[LS]

Only anecdotal: observers saying that it’s about 85-15 D over R. This is really good news.

[Darren McCarty]

Only anecdotal: observers saying that it’s about 85-15 D over R. This is really good news.

That's GOOD news? I really hope the anecdotal are from places like East Cleveland.

[karnage]

Excellent!

[Palmetto Patriot]

I think he means 85% of the decline is D, 15% is R.

[Darren McCarty]

That makes more sense. The only places 85-15 D/R would be good are like Detroit (95-5).

[fortheDeclaration]

Oh no, this is bad news for the handwringers on FR!

[Jake8898]

What is the source for the early vote numbers?

[Wright Wing]

Hope you’re right. Then there should be no reason Obama is trending this way. Makes no sense after 08. With the possible exception that those who voted for Obama last time are unwilling to accept the failure they caused.

[LS]

You aren’t understanding OH. In 2008, it was 95-5. Obama led among earlies by 20 points, won by 5. If earlies are down 370,000 and the splits among earlies are 85-15? He’s toast already.

[LS]

No, I mean that in 2008 in Montgomery County (a D county) the split was 95% of the early vote was D, 5% R. This time, we've gained 10 in the early voting, maybe (if I read the ballot requests right) as much as 25% total).

Rs here are VOTING DAY people. They are still uncomfortable with early voting. McCain carried the #s on election day, but couldn't override the early vote totals. I know, seems high, but you have to know this county.

[LS]

Posted. Twitter, @justkarl

Gotta follow Twitter to know all the bloggers and pundits.

[Palmetto Patriot]

Thanks for that.