[Clump]

It’s really more simple than that.
Think about it.
Silver doesn’t want to talk about analysis or reality.
All he wants is to stay in good with the left.
They won’t blame it on him when zero loses.
But I guarantee you that if he even reluctantly picked Romney or called it a toss up then the left would be finished with him from now on.
Always keep in mind the individual’s personal goals and ambitions when listening to this stuff.

[carlo3b]

I fully agree with what you are saying, but he draws his reputation from the fact that he called the last two elections close enough for some to expect his predictions to have something close to reliable for his own career..

That said, he has to get it close at the end to preserve his reputation.. If he doesn't start to close soon, that isn't going to happen.. UNLESS, he believes, with something that assures himself, that he has solid ground that he is being told, to his satisfaction..