[Errant]

Boy...talking about straining on a gnat and swallowing a camel....talk about splitting hairs.

I'm beginning to wonder, like a lot of others, if you even know what you're talking about or just regurgitating the hyperbole the media is putting out.

No doubt this storm is historic for the N.E., and especially for the mariners braving the Atlantic. Let's just keep our senses about us shall we, instead of panicking beyond all reason.

[NELSON111]

>>>I'm beginning to wonder, like a lot of others, if you even know what you're talking about or just regurgitating the hyperbole the media is putting out.

Try me.

[NELSON111]

And for what it's worth (and again...want proof...freepmail me and I will get it to you...), I and a couple other forecasters were warning OUR customers about this when the NHC was still drinking the GFS cool-aid. I bought the ECMWF-CFS model solution long before the GFS and its models did. Why? Because the AVNO was the right outlier...save 4 members of the ensemble that took it to Spain. The rest of the ensemble suit hooked it back left with the EURO/Canadian.

The problem I had with my initial forecast a week ago was I expected MUCH more cold air. There was a pocket of -10F air up in the Yukon and I anticipated this breaking off and coming down. So...I actually initially forecasted a lake effect snow event due to strong fetch off of Michigan, Erie and Ontario....plus Erie is still at 50F. I thought there would be much more snow. However, by Wed I saw the forecasted thickness values were high (about 950 or so around the coast) and that the cold air wasnt breaking free and realized there would be no snow...so I backed off and pulled the heavy snow west.