Normally, when dealing with normal human beings, I’d agree with you.
However....consider the group we’re talking about here. They would have a LOT to lose, the circle of those “in the know” could be quite small.
Self preservation is a powerful motivator. No, I fall into the camp of “not only plausible, but highly probable”.
Agreed. Lame Cherry blog has some interesting insight into this theory if you can make it through the writing style. It’s kinda like Dennis Miller but less funny.