Rasmussen used to set his party weighting based on his monthly polling of party affiliation. For some unknown reason, he stopped doing this and has arbitrarily weighted it as Dem +3.
Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.
“Personally, I think that Ras was looking over his shoulder and saw that his numbers would be big outliers compared to the other polls if he went GOP +2... and got scared and went with Dem +3.”
You may be right there, Arthurio. It has to be unnerving to try to conduct honest polling and see your results so far off from everyone else. Even if you know you are reporting accurate numbers, at some point you would wonder if maybe the pack is right and you might be doing something wrong.
I registered as a rat to vote against Hillary (my bad) since in the state where I vote there is virtually no way anyone but a rat will win and McCain already had the nomination.
And then there are the multitudes of rats who can no longer stomach zero....
Almost daring to feel optimistic about this election!
Yep. It makes no sense to poll for party id, and then throw them out the door when doing your poll. It’s a waste of money.
The only reason he’s doing it is to appease the Chicago thugs. Right now he has the party id at R+2.6. If he polled every day using that sample, Romney would be up about 5 points.
In 2004 Rasmussen had the party id (at this time) at D+1 and Bush won by 3.
In 2010 Rasmussen had the party id at D+2 and it was a GOP landlside.
At R+2.6 (plus the enthusiasm edge) we are looking at the biggest wipeout in history.
+3 Dem is the best possible outcome for the left. I’ll eat my cat if it ends up higher than that.