Right. Some confuse the party affiliation poll with the sample he uses.
The party id is to gauge the number of Repubs/Dems/Other in the country. To get the trend and snapshot.
Rasmussen used to then apply these statistics to his daily polling.
He no longer does. For some reason he uses an arbitrary D+3 sample. I guess he is predicting the electorate will be a mix between 2008 (D+7) and 2004 (E).
We crawled over broken glass in 2010 without Obama on the ballot - just to send a message. Yet with Obama actually on the ballot - and to send him more than a message, but his actual walking papers - we aren’t as excited? I doubt that.
This will be a landslide defeat for Obama.
We won in a blowout because nearly 40% of the Democrats didn't bother voting.
I guess I'm one of those.
When did he change, and has he said why he did?
I bet Rasmussen will start adjusting again when election is nearer. Being an outlier hurts with liberal media PR now (risking the koook factor), but his real goal is to match the real thing in Nov and become #1 in the field for 4 more years.
Ras has recently said he thinks the actual turnout will be D+2-4%. That explains his switch to a D+3 sample.
I still think his party affiliation makes more sense, so his reasoning confounded me.
Like you, I think we're about to witness a blowout of epic proportions. In that scenario the only way to explain a D+3 turnout is to realize that alot of Dems will vote for Romney.
It's the premise of this thread.
Sly one, that Rasmussen. :)