For a “wag the dog” moment to work it has to appear to be a spontaneous act. Bombing an Aspirin factory or declaring war on someone simply wouldn’t work and would drive his already flagging numbers down. I’m not saying some “wag the dog” plan isn’t being worked on, but it can’t be anything that obvious.
He does the bombing, the media does the spin, and you get your bump. Its a risk for him, but the more likely he looks to lose, the less he has to lose by rolling the dice.