The registration and absentee ballot info that is coming in flies in the face of the mainstream media meme that the race is in the bag for their hero. But one thing really scares me, and that’s the betting on Intrade. People who are putting up actual dollars have bid Obama up to 75. (For those of you unfamiliar with Intrade, if your prediction comes true, you win 100. If it doesn’t, you get zero. So, betting on Obama, you pay 75 to receive 100, a gain of 25. On a $75 bet, that’s 33% profit. A bet on Romney trades at about 25. If he wins, you would, of course, receive 100, a gain of 75, or a 300% profit.)
My thoughts on Intrade, which has had a good record as a predictor, is that the people who are betting are subject to the same misinformation and disinformation as the rest of us, and are wagering based upon it. Or, pardon my tinfoil hat, George Soros and his ilk are bidding up Obama’s prospects in order to destroy our incentive.
The other possibility—that the bettors are correct—is too horrible to contemplate.
Here in the boonies, we have trash talked Obama since the ObamaCare debate started. Believe me, dems join in with the rest of us. Folks were in shock and mourning about their country. I don’t think they need any more incentive to vote him out. It will depend on the useful idiots, who are not motivated to carry signs, hand out literature or write new songs this time around. The kind of folks who have the resolve to show up and vote him out are not the type to invest in Intrade, or to even know what it is. They have no money to waste after bill paying.
It’s what I am telling myself in my pep talk.
My thoughts on Intrade is that this election isn't going to be like any other they've been around to bet on...... There are too many people out there who know how to read a polls internals now and can disseminate the information to others that we know.
Somebody on here likened it to the Catholic Church being the only one who spoke Latin, therefore, they pretty much told the masses who couldn't read Latin what to think......BUT..... now that the masses have learned how to read Latin "the church" (Like the MSM) doesn't control the information exclusively anymore.....
And if it's looking sooooo good for Obozo then why does this guy have his short and curlies so tangled up for?
Everywhere there is a market, there are people trying to manipulate others. Get the suckers to pay high prices right before the crash. That’s the way to win big, right?