I would imagine that it’s not that modern firearms would not work, but that the ammunition cannot be mass manufactured. Muzzle loaders could also conceivably be made with a “muscle, fire, and water” tech base, where modern firearms could not.
I doubt that a local strongman would have difficulty finding sufficient ammunition for his army only 15 years after everything stops tho.
That is what I thought as well, but the girls cross bobow is a very advanced design, that they have just begun to use recently. I can't imagine the cables and strings for that lasting 15 years.