One thing, though, that we SHOULD all remember. The 2004 day of election exist polls were absolutely, unquestionably falsified in order to give the impression of a Kerry victory...with the hopes of propelling Kerry to victory.
So we do in fact know that polls (in this case exist polls) are SOMETIMES falsified and deliberately distorted. Problem is, though, that in 2008...as you correctly note...the polls were correct on the outcome and the good ones were correct on teh margin (ie, Rasmussen).
A final point: most of the polls did in fact underestimate what McCain finally got. So, some of the pre-election day analysis that said McCain’s vote was underreported turned out to be correct...just not correct enough.
So what’s the action item? I suppose my take away, personally, is simply to watch Rasmussen, which I do.
And by Rasmussen, Romney has NOT won as of today.
Hopefully next week will bring positive movement.
Absent other evidence, I believe the best turnout model is somewhere between the 2004 presidential and the 2010 midterm. The electorate won’t have the GOP dominance of 2010 since it is a presidential year, but we should exceed the GOP percentage of 2004.
Relying on 2008 is a joke.