Posted on 09/21/2012 11:35:02 AM PDT by Signalman
I’d like to believe him but I remember all the reasons posted for not believing the polls in 2008, and McCain lost.
So I hope he’s right, but I’m not counting my chickens before they’re hatched.
I don’t pay much attention to polls.
They are used by press organizations for a couple of reasons. First, they displace real news. Instead of reporting news, you report what people think about the news.
Second, by the way you set up the polls and report them, you influence the way people think about the news that you aren’t really reporting.
And then its third reason, for a propagandist, the polling tells you how well you’re doing in terms of shaping public perceptions, if your propaganda and PR are working, and if you need to refocus your efforts and how.
Every time I see the same old MSM polls, I’m reminded of a quote by Dr. Richard Kimball in the Fugitive: “You switched the samples!”
At this stage of the game it really looks like pure MSM psyops: demoralize GOP turnout by making a Obama victory look “inevitable.”
We can’t either despair or get overconfident. My best guess is that Romney is up by about 4 or 5, but we have to push hard to the finish and not let them get us off our game.
I would think that the 2010 election turnout has a lot of relevance. More than 2008 or 2004.
I know I’m pi$$ed enough to vote for a RINO like Romney to keep the incompetent socialist out of office.
Romney even has a shot at taking Connecticut, so the toe-sucker is making some sense here.
In 08 the polls were based on the 04 results, and so understated the vote for Obama, for exactly the reasons Dick explains in this article.
Polls created for media consumption are not designed to be accurate. They’re designed to attract attention. The polls that we never see belong to the respective parties and are considered proprietary information. They spend hundreds of thousands of dollars for this data, and I guarantee you they’re not going to share that info. Watching a campaign is a bit like watching a Texas Hold’em tournament on ESPN. You never know what cards they’re holding until the final call. The only clues come from how they’re betting.
Except the polls were pretty darn accurate in 2008 and that is what has some of us more than a little jittery this time around.
People are lying to the polls?
Morris was one of the few analysts that predicted the 2010 landslide though.
I never though McCain was going to win
I knew the Palin Vote would improve his chances- he would have lost in a landslide without her.
But I never expected him to win. Not with The Media Whorenalists cheerleading for Obambi the way they were.
There was not a lot of reason NOT TO vote for Obambi last time- no one (except us) knew anything about him... so there was a strong factor of “lets take a chance”- that is GONE GONE GONE
The polls were accurate because they saw a massive groundswell of Obamamania and gave him a +8 advantage with polling, which was correct. To still be giving him such an advantage today is borderline ridiculous.
and you can't raise money if the press says you're way behind
.
I’m not discounting what your are saying and in no way do I feel that turnout for the shithead will be anywhere close to 2008 but once burned by the idea of ‘bad polls’ it’s hard to completely discount them this time around.... I’m trying but it’s not easy.
You are quite right.
This election is pretty scary. And as of right now, Romney is close, but he hasn’t closed the deal. Not yet. I did see a poll with him up in FL today, and that’s good. But still, about a three point bump nationally would be good, and then OH, VA and FL need to fall into line.
...and in this election cycle that is a very dangerous play on the part of the MSM. There is another side to that coin.
SOME polls were accurate.
The polls by professional polling houses (Gallup, Rasmussen, ARG, SurveyUSA, etc.) showed a steady Obama lead for a month leading into the election. They were largely correct. MSM polls showed Obama with unsupportably huge leads (10-15%, when he actually only won by 7. These usually overstated Obama's support, and for much the same reason as they are today - messed up internal demographics and unrealistic partisan ID breakdowns.
My house ONLY has cell phones, no land line. Both of us will be in line first day of early voting. My grown 3 children only have cell phones, the 5 of them will be voting for Romney. We don’t get polled!!!
One thing, though, that we SHOULD all remember. The 2004 day of election exist polls were absolutely, unquestionably falsified in order to give the impression of a Kerry victory...with the hopes of propelling Kerry to victory.
So we do in fact know that polls (in this case exist polls) are SOMETIMES falsified and deliberately distorted. Problem is, though, that in 2008...as you correctly note...the polls were correct on the outcome and the good ones were correct on teh margin (ie, Rasmussen).
A final point: most of the polls did in fact underestimate what McCain finally got. So, some of the pre-election day analysis that said McCain’s vote was underreported turned out to be correct...just not correct enough.
So what’s the action item? I suppose my take away, personally, is simply to watch Rasmussen, which I do.
And by Rasmussen, Romney has NOT won as of today.
Hopefully next week will bring positive movement.
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