If you can find the internals of that Rasmussen poll post them and ping me. I have a hard time believing that she has 49% support in that poll which would require atleast half of Missouri independents most of whom are ABMs and ABOs.
In my neck of the woods, the soccer moms don’t just live in Johnson County, there are plenty of them on the Missouri side as well especially north of KC. They aren’t voting for Akin and that includes what few blue dog democrats are still left in the state. On this issue, the traditional numbers aren’t much help, I’m afraid.