[napscoordinator]

I haven't Hildy. They are more accurate because it is real money and I would imagine that they pay out or people would not still be using it (I am assuming). The bad part is that 68 percent think Obama gets a second term. That MUST be before this disastrous week. A few weeks ago it was at around 58 percent. I look at Intrade occasionally.

[arista]

"68 percent think Obama gets a second term"

Right now Obama's chance of winning the election is trading at 65 on Intrade. That doesn't mean that 65% of the traders think he will win. It doesn't mean that they think he will get 65% of the vote.

It means that people who think he will win are putting at risk $6.50 for a chance to win $3.50. On the othr side of the bet are people who think he will lose who are risking $3.50 for a chance to win $6.50.

The best way to think of Intrade is as a conglomeration of public knowledge of an event.