This storm has the potential to be quite the storm actually. While impact to south Florida will be minimal since it will cross over Cuba or Haiti, Northern Florida or further west in the GOM could actually face a monster storm if it tracks further west as depicted on some models.
While a weaker storm is a more likely scenario with heavy rains the gift. It's way to early to discount the extreme scenario.
Tampa has an invisible protective shield over it. Storms go up the peninsula (Donna in '62?) or out in the Gulf and hit Big Bend and points west Elena in '85).
The last time a storm hit just above the mouth of Tampa Bay on the Pinellas peninsula was 1848.
That was a bad one....everything south of Sulphur Springs was under water. Picture that the next time you ride on 275 from downtown to USF.