[The South Texan]

More early prediction hysterics from the National Hurricane Center. They put the path of this thing over Hatti/ The DR which is known as the Hurricane Shredder thanks to the mountians.

I’ve noticed since NOAA started issuing these five days guesses, the intial tracks are almost always to far south and gradually get moved north with new advisories and data. This thing will part hit the east coast of Florida. Georgia, or the Carolinas.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Mrs. GBC and I had a good laugh yesterday at The Weather Channel weather dude who was bragging about how the 5 day out projection cone had narrowed over the years. What he failed to mention is that after day two that initial projection is OBE and the new 5 day projection heads the storm in a different direction.

[rarestia]

NHC is notorious for early prediction hysterics. I ALWAYS watch the GFS for predictions. They predicted Debbie going toward the Big Bend of Florida the entire time without fail, and they are historically the most accurate predictor of storm tracks.

That being said, a lot of the current tracks are highly suspect since we just don’t know what the mid-Atlantic ridge is going to do. As you can see, the GFS has the ridge holding steady, while other ensemble members are predicting that it moves east.

Either way, expect a rainy weekend or early convention week in Florida.