After you remove ‘what seem to be safe states’ for Obama and Romney you are left with Obama-201 Romney-191
The states below will decide the election. These are all states Obama won in 08.
State Poll date sample data EV
Michigan 7/23/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-42 16
Iowa 8/8/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-44 6
Nevada 7/24/12 500LV Obama- 50 Romnay-45 6
Wisconsin 7/25/12 500LV Obama-49 Romnay-46 10
Colorado 8/6/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-47 9
Penn. 7/18/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-44 20
N. Car 8/1/12 500LV Romney-49 Obama-44 15
Virginia 8/7/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-46 13
New Ham 6/20/12 500LV Obama-48 Romney-43 4
Florida 7/9/12 500LV Romney-46 Obama-45 29
Ohio 7/18/12 500LV Obama-47 Romney-45 18
Total of toss ups 146
R&R will take Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, & Colorado. I can see Michigan and Pennsylvania also turning red. High probability of that happening and if so, shows over call in the moving vans.
And Obama won Indiana in 2008.
Rasmussen has Obama losing Indiana by 16%. RR 51% to Obama’s 35%.