“Interesting question.
It is, however, faced with the problem of all counter-factual speculations.
Is there any particular reason to believe things would not have turned out even worse had the CSA won its independence?
We know what happened when the Union won, so we assume none of the bad things would have happened if the other option had occurred.”
Of course, you are correct. No one knows or can never know the answer to that. I just thought that I would throw it out there for speculation. :-)
I’ll give you a speculation.
The CSA wins, but only at the end of a long and bloody war. Multiple wars follow, over control of the west, CSA resentment of USA encouragement of fugitive slaves, the usual trade disputes, etc.
These wars merge into the greater wars of the 20th century, and we get to fight battles of WWI and WWII on American soil.
Possibly without a united America to come to its rescue, Europe falls to a ultra-nationalist and/or racist Germany. Possibly one of the American states allies itself with them.
Oh, joy.
I think the only obviously true statement you can make about what would have happened is that the world of 2012 would be a very different place had the CSA won its independence. Maybe better, maybe worse. And people would sit around posting speculations about how much better the world would be had the USA remained united in the 1860s.