I think we still would have prevailed (due to the atomic bomb which was going to be developed regardless) but short term, the situation in the Pacific would have been much grimmer.
Almost certainly, the Japanese would have gone on to occupy the Hawaiian island and our all-important Pearl Harbor base would be useless to us. Further, the Japanese would have had a free hand in the entire Pacific and would also have captured and occupied Australia as well as the Aleutian islands and quite possibly the oil-rich area of Alaska.
The U.S. Navy would have been forced to retreat to the West Coast of the U.S. until such time that additional battleships and carriers could be built for Pacific operations. Remember that at that time, the focus was on the European War and the priority was to establish a beachhead in northern Europe - which was still two full years away.
It was because of Midway that the Allies saw fit to continue to pour resources into the Pacific - in order to keep the Japanese on the defensive. If not for the turning point of Midway, in which U.S. naval forces were able to achieve parity with the Japanese virtually overnight, the island hopping campaign that brought us virtually to the shores of mainland Japan by the time of the German surrender would not have been possible.
Instead, we would have been forced to put the Pacific War in a holding pattern and focus our efforts there on defending the West Coast until such time the battle in Europe could be won. The Japanese empire would have become just as powerful as Nazi Germany and it would likely taken us into 1946 or 1947 before we could be in position to drop atomic bombs on Japan because first we would need to get close enough to stage aircraft within striking distance (our atomic bombs were delivered by B-29s that were stationed on the island of Tinian) because at that time, our bombers did not have the range that they have today.
What if the Japanese had invaded Pearl Harbor on December 8th?
The Japanese missed the really important target in Hawaii: oil storage facilities. On December 8, 1941, there was more oil in Hawaii than in Japan. If they had wrecked the oil storage facilities, there would have been no Battle of Midway, because there would have been no fuel for the ships and planes that won it. Instead of “The Battle of Midway” it would have been the “Unopposed Occupation of Midway”.
The worst possible scenario would be one ending with Japan in control of Hawaii and possible control of Australia. However I would have to doubt if the taking of Australia would even be possible based on its large size and with China being the main priority for the Army. An invasion of the US mainland would not be possible, those same marine divisions storming beaches, would be stationed on the west coast for defense (I for one would not want to charge beaches on entrenched marines). Shipyards on the West Coast would be rendered useless, by attacks or threat of attack. Japan would also probably hit Panama to knock out the canal.
Our submarine forces would continue to wreck havoc on Japanese shipping until they had no forward areas to stage from, and any damage they would inflict would be pretty much permanent.
Germany would still fall. Japan would be facing holding island bases while their supply networks were over-extended. At some point the US would have naval superiority and force a confrontation with the JVN. Any remaining forces would be hunted down with airborne radar.
The Japanese failed to upgrade much of their military during the war, it is doubtful they would have the opportunity do so when faced with shipping problems even with their victories.
After US operations and landings in the south of France there would be little need for a large naval presence in the Atlantic and much of those forces would be moved to the Pacific.
Facing another long drawn out campaign the Japanese might have been able to secure some sort of peace (without an unconditional surrender), if they would be wise enough to see it (I doubt the Japanese military which pretty much ruled at that time would have been).
So more of the same, an island hopping campaign 2 years later than when we started, probably ending with nukes once we got Tinian