I’m thinking that Crocodile Dundee would have ended up speaking Japanese. We would have won eventually, but the process would have been longer and less pleasant.
The loss of the four carriers was devastating to Japan. They could neither replace the ships or their flight crews.
However, what exactly was Japan’s plan to win the war?
Initially, they thought to knock the U.S. out, negotiate a peace, and continue undeterred by us with their crazy idea of creating a Japan-dominated East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. In other words, at some point, instead of continually sinking resources into their extended empire, they were to be enriched by it.
This is like thinking socialism, central planning, high taxes, and slavery works.
The key to us winning WWII was the Supreme Court declaring the National Recovery Act unconstitutional, delaying the socialization of the U.S. economy until Obama’s second term.
Because we still had a basically capitalist economy, we were able to not only supply our military, but Russia’s as well. Almost all their trucks were U.S.-built 2 1/2 tons, and more of their tanks were Shermans than T-34s. Ditto their warplanes.
The Soviets would have gotten involved eventually, once Hitler was done away with, and would have claimed at least half of Japan. Setting up an inevitable Civil War, like Korea.