x Government spending
the economy has not exited the “Recession”
I'm sure that the German stock market and GDP were going through the roof (measured in deutchmarks) during the hyperinflation of the Wiemar Republic.
Four of the past six recessions started during a quarter when GDP was growing, as did 72% of all recessions in the past 94 years .
How can that be? The answer is that expansions end -- and recessions begin -- at the peak of the business cycle, after which the economy begins to contract.
Sounds like they are playing word games with quantization of when data is collected. During the quarter when the recession starts it could start in the first, second or third month. Unless the drop is in the first month of the quarter there will be some growth during the first quarter of a recession.
A bigger concern is that the recession is based on the real GDP, which is the nominal GDP minus the inflation rate. I believe that the inflation rate is intentionally understated thus we may already be into that recession.
That is because the economy isn't growing on its own, but by borrowing foreign money to pay for unemployment benefits and make work jobs. Obama has managed to improve the numbers through borrowing, but the fact he's still borrowing shows he hasn't fixed the problems.