I live in Ohio and I can tell you there are goodly number of people leaving the State. And I've noticed many are heading to Texas.
So I am guessing we are losing Conservative Votes in the process. Columbus used to be a toss up as far as to which party would win the Area. It seems to have swung permanently to the Dems. The Area I live in is about 70% Republican. In the recent past no one would even consider Running as a Democrat (except for one guy who would always get elected because he represented an Area where most of the Teachers and the City Union Workers lived in) for our town council and Mayor. Last Election the Democrats managed to get 4 people Elected to Our Town Council.
Bottom line from what I can gather Ohio is definitely in Play for the Democrats. They can take it on election day even if Gas Prices and the Economy is still shaky. The Taft Debacle hurt the Republican party deep in the Republican strongholds in Ohio. It will take a decade or more from this point to repair the damage.
Also a Buckeye. I think 6 months ago O would lose Ohio, and would trail Sherrod Brown (D) running for Senate. Gov. Kasich really became unpopular last 2 years, but hopefully he has mended fences. He went all out to throw out the Party Chairman (DeWine) who helped win a statewide R sweep. I do not know why Kasich took this internecine tack, but it has been done and I do not know how that will work. It of course split party. Then we have a new insurgency of Conservatives vowing to sit out the presidential race (e.g. FR). If anyone sits out the Prez race, I hope they work to seat a Tea Party Congress to help block O, but as we’ve seen O goes around Congress with impunity (Boehner & McConnell) with czars, recess appointments, agency rules and regs, executive orders, etc. All the Dems have to do is elect ONE guy (O) and they seem focused on doing that. Rs are all over the place - very disorganized and unfocused.