I think it’s too late. Between Apple and Android, the market is set. Unless Microsoft comes up with something exceptional that works on really popular hardware, they missed the boat.
Microsoft became big by putting their operating system on the hardware that was the most standard (and way cheaper than Apple). I don’t think that market is available on mobile devices.
They said the same thing about the game console market.
I wouldn’t count them out. Everybody thought the gaming market was saturated as well, but they are the big boy there.
I saw a chart that compared Microsoft’s growth with Android’s and, for the same time period, Microsoft is growing faster. So it will be interesting to see what happens.
If Microsoft is willing to give a better experience than Apple or Android, and are willing to stay in, at all costs, even taking it on the chin during their growing phase, they will probably be fine I suspect.
But this is one fight they cannot afford to lose. They will essentially be out of the consumer market if they cannot succeed here. That’s their situation.