That’s pretty close to what I would expect Romney to carry if (God forbid) he were the GOP nominee. But I think that Romney would carry OH and Obama would carry NV, which would give Romney a razor-thin 270-268 victory; Romney would cost us PA and WI, where Santorum would likely win.
As for your shading, I wouldn’t have IN, MT, MO and NC in light blue; Romney would get over 50% in those states (easily exceeding it in the first three).
I think we can win whether Romney, Santorum or Newt is our nominee, so I don’t give any thought to the Romneyite argument that he’s “more electable” and “the only one who can win.” But neither do I believe that Romney can’t win, since Obama has a very tough road to 270.
Sorry, I didn’t adjust the % shadings, I was just going for a rough estimate of the states he’d carry under the best of circumstances. I don’t think Willard will carry Ohio, because he is just the sort of ultrarich elitist that will viscerally turn off the working class, ones whom would ordinarily support us. He’s a walking media stereotype of an out-of-touch “Republican.” If McCain couldn’t pull it off in 2008, there’s no way someone to his left will this time, and why would we want to ? If we have a Conservative run third party (if and only if he is coronated), the whole map will take on a very different shade.