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To: FreeAtlanta
There's a drop of about 1 1/2 million from 2008 to 2009 which has never recovered. I searched for a while but couldn't find any mention of a change in procedures. I have to suspect that's it; but have no reason what it consisted of or what the justification was.

I'm happy to assume government skullduggery in the meantime.

11 posted on 01/15/2012 9:18:17 AM PST by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.)
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To: BfloGuy

Unless Bill Clinton was the only person having sex in the 1990’s, it doesn’t make sense that our population has suddenly stopped growing.


16 posted on 01/15/2012 9:23:29 AM PST by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: BfloGuy
Please bear with me as I work my way to how people are dropped out of the civilian labor force.

The BLS produces two sets of unemployment statistics:
* CPS (Current Population Survey) or Household Survey Data which is found in the A tables of the empsit, and
* CES (Current Employment Situation) or Establishment Survey data which is found in the B tables of the empsit Employment Situation.

Each month the BLS surveys 60,000 households by phone. The results are put through various stastical tools and produce the CPS or Household data. This is the source of the unemployment rate. Whether or not one is collecting unemployment insurance is not considered in producing the unemployment rate.

Each month BLS also surveys approximately 150,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 390,000 worksites throughout the United States. The results are also put various statistical tools and produce the CES or Payroll / Establishment data . This is the source of the number of jobs gained / lost, hours worked, and earnings. Because some businesses are late in sending in their information, the payroll data is subject to monthly revisions.

The number of people collecting unemployment affects the annual benchmark revisions to the Establishment / Payroll data which "are derived primarily from employment counts reported on unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with State Workforce Agencies".

* In 1994, under Clinton a major redesign of the CPS was released. Part of the redesign was to drop people out of the civilian labor force if they were considered 'discouraged' and were unemployed for over one year. Prior to the redesign, you were considered unemployed if you wanted to find a job, even if you were 'discouraged'.

Not counting the long term discouraged unemployed as part of the civilian labor force makes the unemployment rate look better, better but is reflected in the ever diminishing participation rate.

I have not been able to locate documentation detailing exactly how the BLS determines one has been discouraged for more than a year. [Some discouraged workers are counted in the U-4, U-5, and U-6 number; others are moved out of the civilian labor force but listed as wanting a job.]
23 posted on 01/15/2012 9:55:10 AM PST by aldabra
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