Intrade has been the worst predictor of political fortunes ever. Ask the guy that (who’s name escapes me) used to spam the forum daily on Duncan Hunter’s Intrade successes in 2008. Really, flipping a coin would be more useful than intrade.
this far out, it isn’t very useful unless you think it is the beginning of a long term trend. But when you are only days away from the deadline, it is very accurate.