Posted on 12/08/2011 11:36:42 AM PST by Signalman
Chinese 2485 year tree ring study shows shows sun or ocean controls climate, temps will cool til 2068
A blockbuster Chinese study of Tibetan Tree rings by Lui et al 2011 shows, with detail, that the modern era is a dog-standard normal climate when compared to the last 2500 years. The temperature, the rate of change: it’s all been seen before. Nothing about the current period is “abnormal”, indeed the current warming period in Tibet can be produced through calculation of cycles. Lui et al do a fourier analysis on the underlying cycles and do a brave predictions as well.
In Tibet, it was about the same temperature on at least 4 occasions — back in late Roman times — blame the chariots, then again in the dark ages — blame the collapse of industry; then in the middle ages — blame the vikings; in modern times — blame the rise of industry. Clearly, these climate cycles have nothing to with human civilization. Their team finds natural cycles of many different lengths are at work: 2-3 years, 100 years, 199 years, 800 years, and 1324 year. The cold periods are associated with sunspot cycles. What we are not used to seeing are brave scientists willing to publish exact predictions of future temperatures for 100 years that include rises and falls. Apparently, it will cool til 2068, then warm again, though not to the same warmth as 2006 levels.
On “tree-rings”
Now some will argue that skeptics scoff at tree rings, and we do — sometimes — especially ones based on the wrong kind of tree (like the bristlecone) or ones based on small samples (like Yamal), ones with abberant statistical tricks that produce the same curve regardless of the data, and especially ones that truncate data because it doesn’t agree with thermometers placed near airconditioner outlets and in carparks. Only time will tell if this analysis has nailed it, but, yes, it is worthy of our attention.
Some will also, rightly, point out this is just Tibet, not a global average. True. But the results agree reasonably well with hundreds of other studies from all around the world (from Midieval times, Roman times, the Greenland cores). Why can’t we do good tree-ring analysis like this from many locations?
Unexpected, catastrophic warming!
It's easy, just ask that CAGW pseudo prof at the State Penn.
1) data does not look like that- a straight line with a sudden increase
2) ‘significant figures’ - they purported to show tenths of a degree differences, when they only measure by tree rings. No way on earth possible to accurately measure to tenths
3) THE EMAILS EXPOSED THEM AS LIARS!! they committed the worst acts in science.
The first worst level is drawing bad conclusions but that is forgivable (and in fact is why we have peer review)
the second is DELIBERATELY leaving out data that does not support your desired outcome. this is bad enough to be fired. but at least you can still go back and double check.
the last and worst level is DELETING data that does not support your desired conclusions- because you no longer can tell anything and knowlege itself is lost.
In the Sierra Nevada, probably less than 100 miles from where I write this; are older trees (4000) YO, that can be matched to trees lying on the ground to go back to 6000 years. They must have already done studies like this.
What is new in this article is the attempt to forecast based on cycle overlap. Cooling for the next 57 years? Makes sense having lived throught the warming side that this may coming.
The warming was / is obvious, the cause; not so much.
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