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To: CowboyJay
there is not enough economically recoverable oil to maintain the kind of growth in world supply it would take to keep up with demand

I don't agree, certainly not for the next several decades. As the demand puts price pressure on the commodity, it becomes more economical to reach the more difficult sources. At the same time, the price pressure slows the demand growth.

The increased prices funds more technology for items like horizontal steerable drilling and make more sources economical to produces.

36 posted on 12/05/2011 11:02:57 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney
"The increased prices funds more technology for items like horizontal steerable drilling and make more sources economical to produces."

Supply has become increasingly inelastic. We have the same level of world supply we did 7 years ago despite the change in price. All that production from new technology isn't enough to replace the traditional plays that are going offline. They're more expensive than traditional recovery methods in terms of money, time, and capital invested and have a lower EROI. Higher prices make those sources marginally profitable for the producers. They don't make oil any more economical for consumers or from a macro perspective. And if there is no demand above a certain price level, then there is no increase in production.

Peak oil isn't a question of whether or not we have the technological capability to produce more. It's about whether we can increase our overall economic output enough to afford the increasing marginal costs of production, refinery, and distribution.

This chart obviously needs updating, but you can see what has happened to our economic output since 2000 in terms of being able to afford more oil.


42 posted on 12/05/2011 11:49:13 AM PST by CowboyJay (Generic Republican - 2012. He's the only 'electable' candidate.)
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