It’s good that Cain’s still leading, but this poll still troubles me. Looks like there is still 15% undecided in this most recent poll.
The problem I see is that the conservatives are splitting the vote. Even if it’s just single digits, it still counts.
Santorum getting 5%? He’ll still around if that’s true because he can say he “quintupled” his support.
Perry is not going to drop out because he has the money to go to at least FL.
Bachmann won’t drop out until after the IA contest, because she’s going to hold out hope that conservatives come back to her.
I don’t see Newt dropping out anytime before IA either.
I could care less about the Paulbots and Huntsman.
The problem is we already know what the media spin is going to be. If Romney finishes a “strong” 2nd, it will be hyped up to be as good as a win leading on to the NH primary where he has a kind of home-field advantage, then play that to the NV caucuses.
The conservative candidate needs to win the IA caucuses by at least 10%, and if possible, needs to get 40% or more of the vote.
If we get something like: Cain 31%, Romney 26%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 10%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 6%, Santorum 4%, Huntsman 2%, the MSM is going to spin it as a strong win for Romney and a slight advantage to Cain given the strong number of conservatives in IA and that NH and NV will set Romney up as his *rightful* place as the frontrunner.
We need something like the following:
Cain: 41%, Romney 26%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%, Perry 7%, Bachmann 4%, Santorum 2%, Huntsman 2%.
I hope and expect that if Romney continues to draw no more than 25-30% and Cain is at about that then the supporters of Santorum and Bachmann will start to climb aboard the Cain Train and push him ahead.
That's not what the TEA party is about, and if they do that crap and are still associated and supported by the TEA party I will not have anything to do with that part of the so-called Conservative movement.
We need to start putting pressure on these people now, and let them know how we feel. That goes for people like Sarah Palin as well, considering we all know she will be active in the election, there is no excuse for her not to start by by supporting a Conservative primary candidate, and Cain's the only one left with a chance.
I think most will listen if enough of us let them know how we feel. They won't be getting the same warm receptions at many TEA party events like they have in the past if they hurt the Conservative movement this election, and their campaigns for any other government office will lose support and money. We just need to make sure they know this.
I like Conservatives like Palin and Bachmann a lot, and they have helped the Conservative movement tremendously, but they still can't be excused if they end up hurting the movement they helped start. If that does happen it could be an end to the rise of the movement, so I hope to GOD they do the right thing with the opportunity we have this election.