Your theory as to why she decided not to run is close to the truth, imo. If Palin got the nomination, it would have been on the strength of the tea party voters. The GOP establishment elites would not have supported her in the general election. They would rather see her and the tea party lose as they despise us more than they do Obama. Palin isn’t willing to let that happen. We’ll need to work hard to send many tea party patriots to the House and Senate to negate the power of the GOP elites. Should the country elect a Romney as president, I’d like to see a primary challenge in 2016. Maybe it’ll be Palin. We’ll see.
However, I wouldn’t rule out a new party forming to challenge both the Democrat AND Republican parties. They’re both corrupt.
I will not be surprised at all if the Tea Party rises to become a 3rd official party AFTER the 2012 election if we can get Obama out and off his dictatorial throne. There are “effectively” 3 parties now, but tea party’ers dare not split the vote until Obama is gone. When that grisly task is done, I will most gladly align myself with a “Tea Party” party, if that arises. I no longer consider myself a Republican, but instead consider myself a constitutional conservative and that distinction has never been more clear. The Republican ruling class are corrupt to the bone, and are no different than the liberal class in most aspects. They are clubhouse buddy’s, and are out to maintain their power and the status quo.