You are likely assessing facial expressions and fidgeting body movements; you are likely to be close to 100% correct that your student is confused.
My classroom perceptions are far different than discerning if a criminal defendant is guilty based on courtroom observations.
I don't accept that premise. In what ways are your classroom perceptions so different from perceptions made in a criminal case? You're watching facial expressions and body language in class now.
I submit the talent it takes to assess facial expressions and body language in a criminal case is quite similar to the talent it takes to determine whether a student seeking relief from penalty due to an extenuating circumstance (e.g., "the dog ate my homework," or "my work is late because of 'X'"). Particularly as a teacher, I submit you're doing it whether you consciously acknowledge it or not.
I do not know about any research supporting your assertion that the jurors can reliably infer guilt or innocence based on courtroom perceptions.
Bill O'Reilly routinely features the "body language" segment on his show. Israeli flight passenger screeners are masters of assessing body language, facial expressions, and interview testimony of passengers on a daily basis. What sort of formal research must be accomplished to prove something which by so many measures and examples is so obvious to so many?
Research indicates that law enforcement cannot reliably discern if suspects are lying so I do not have much confidence that jurors can determine guilt based on courtroom behavior.
You keep throwing around this "research" term. What "research" could you possibly be referring to? Tell that to Israeli flight screeners and criminal profilers and I am certain that having seen both in action and the Israelis up close and personal, they would likely disagree with what ever "research" you can produce on the subject of determining innocence or guilt using facial expressions and body language.
FReegards!