[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

It comes straight down to the electoral math.

Obama will not hold (regardless of his opponent) Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Indiana.

With the loss of those States, and with the reapportionment of Congressional seats from the 2010 census, he will be sitting on 273 Electoral Votes from 2008.

There are 7 States that could be considered possible flips (and if Obama loses a single one, he loses the race).

Those States are:

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Nevada
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa

The last three on the list are the most important. All in the same region, all suffering the same situation, but the middle State of those (Wisconsin), has a Tea Party Governor who Palin went to support in the Public Union debate.

And that State is now recovering.

Palin is from the upper Midwest originally, speaks with their accent, is part of the outdoors world, and the unique populism culture that is part of that regions history.

She can flip at least one of those States.

That’s how she beats Obama. (I have also stated that I believe former ND Governor, current ND Senator John Hoeven will be the VP pick for whoever gets the nomination for the same scenario.)

[samantha]

Sorry,SP was born in NW Idaho,but moved with her parents as an infant. SP’s Mom was born and raised mostly in Wisconsin, and that same accent is prominent in the Area of Alaska around Wasilla where she was raised.

Obummer (if he runs) will not win Florida trust me, we have a large Jewish Population and they are ticked at his hate for Israel.

[FreeReign]

Obama will not hold (regardless of his opponent) Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Indiana... (Wisconsin),

Exactly right.

Anybody who thinks that Obama will win those states against any Republican doesn't understand what's going on in this country.

And out of all the Republican candidates and potential candidates, Palin has the best shot to swing over Wisconsin.

[parksstp]

Scratch Minnesota on your list and replace it with Michigan. Even still, I suspect the Detroit machine will still be out in full force.

NH is not made up of the “conservative” base a Palin would need to win. It’s toss-up for Romney and so-so for everyone else.

The Republican base is heavily fractured in NV. There are enough of the Paulbot anarachists and socially moderate Repulicans, that unless the GOP candidate can unify all factions, they’ve got no shot here. The GOP nominee is going to have to get near 290,000+ votes in Clark and around 100,000+ in Washoe to have a shot, and this takes into account that Obama’s support will taper off. Because all of the nominees turn off some faction or the other, it’s hard to see a unifying effort here. This is what did in Sharon Angle.

Wisconsin is up for grabs and may be the best chance at grabbing the state in years. It was razor thin in 2004/2008 and the GOP survived everything that the Unions threw at them in the Special Elections.

Colorado is another ground zero location. Scratch this off for Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Tea Party activists make up a plurality (but not a majority) of the GOP base. If you get Tancredo’s support for campaigning in the state, it’s competitive. If not, the state is blue.

Pennsylvania is always a tease. Depending on whether or not that EV by CD gets passed or not could by itself make up the “one” additional state the GOP would need to hit 270, because they’d win at least 6, if not more CD’s. As for winning outright, the key here is to win in the 6th CD with the margins Bush did, while capitalizing on the gains made in the 11th CD. The 11th has never majority voted for the GOP for POTUS in the last 30 years. If that happens, and the margins Bush carried against Kerry hold (McCain ran far weaker), then the GOP has a shot at taking PA.

Iowa - Romney has no shot. It’s a matter of who shows up at the polls in greater force: social conservatives v liberals, and the farmers that vote mainly on ethanol subsidies.

You left off New Mexico. That will be close also.

[Smokin' Joe]

Hoeven was a fairly good governor, but many of the economic successes he enjoyed during his terms in office were started by policies enacted under Ed Schafer, to give credit where credit is due. That environment created then helped the boom in oil drilling, including Bakken development (we were drilling Bakken wells in Montana, just across the border in 2000), had streamlined and improved the efficiency of State Government, which Hoeven continued to a degree, but the State budget under Hoeven grew substantially, supported by the oil revenues.

Education and social services remain the 600 lb gorillas in the room, because virtually every request for increases is granted, and the systems demand greater fiscal scrutiny.

[Vor Lady]

I’m not sure how you count Sand point, ID as the Midwest. The Pacific Northwest counts ID as one of theirs.