[palmer]

In the paper, Columbia University geoscientist Wally Broecker calculated how much carbon dioxide would accumulate in the atmosphere in the coming 35 years, and how temperatures consequently would rise. His numbers have proven almost dead-on correct.

They lie as usual. The paper which I just downloaded predicts 0.7 degrees of increase between 1980 and 2010. The satellite record, our most accurate measurement, shows less than 1/2 that much rise.

[cogitator]

Two questions:

1. Is the mean global temperature operationally defined as the satellite-measured lower tropospheric temperature? I tend to think Broecker wasn't addressing the lower troposphere because satellite measurements of that variable didn't start until 3 years later.

2. Does this statement define the error bar range? "Although surprises may yet be in store for us when larger computers and a better knowledge of cloud physics allow the next stage of the modeling to be accomplished, the magnitude of the CO2 effect has probably been pinned down to within a factor of 2 to 4"

Thanks for indicating how easy it was to find the paper.