GREEN SCAM!
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I think electric will be a player, but I honestly don’t know when.
Right now there is a lot of hype around advancing battery technology & fuel cells. But most of it is just that: hype.
The ability to take a full charge in 5 minutes is crucial, and to absorb a notable charge in 1 or 2 minutes from small portable generators.
Right now, the Leaf, the USA’s first affordable electric (if you call 40K affordable), takes 30 minutes to recharge on a “quick” charger. And Nissan does NOT want you doing this often, as it will destroy the battery.
Fuel cells can replace gasoline, if and only if, we get rid of the platinum requirement of a fuel cell. Or at least greatly reduce it. AND we develop very cheap ways to generate power, to crack hydrogen, or solve hydrogen production problems using microbes bred for the job.
Now I can cover this in two paragraphs, but it will take YEARS to get any of this stuff fixed.
I suspect my next pickup will still be V8, Japanese, 32V, and burn good gasoline.
Diesel will be the fail in the USA (as pertains to the majority of pickups & cars), because our EPA is too strict on diesels. People aren’t going to want to deal with urea injection and filter replacement.
If we had enough republican support of the right types of republicans, the EPA limitations could be lifted, but I am not holding my breath.