[Charles Henrickson]

No candidate who has finished less then 2nd has ever won the nomination.

Not true:

Ames Straw Poll results, August 2007
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) Brownback
4) Tancredo
5) Paul
6) T. Thompson
7) F. Thompson
8) Giuliani
9) Hunter
10) McCain (0.7%)
11) Cox

McCain ended up winning the nomination.

[Longbow1969]

And in ‘87 it appears GHWB came in 3rd, yet won the nomination and went on to beat the little Duke.