“All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down,,,

Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.

A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces:

“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”

Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.

Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at

mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.

“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”

In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss
(Earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.

Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and
spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.

Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program at NSO’s Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO’s 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.

“A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.”

Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.

“In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case.”

All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.

“If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

Media teleconference information: This release is the subject of a media
teleconference at the current meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s
Solar Physics Division (AAS/SPD). The telecon will be held at 11 a.m. MDT
(17:00 UTC) on Tuesday, 14 June. Bona fide journalists are invited to attend

the teleconference and should send an e-mail to the AAS/SPD press officer,
Craig DeForest, at deforest@boulder.swri.edu, with the subject heading “SPD:
SOLAR MEDIA TELECON”, before 16:00 UTC. You will receive dial-in information
before the telecon.

These results have been presented at the current meeting of the AAS/SPD.
Citations:

16.10: “Large-Scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum — Where Is Cycle
25?” by Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P. Larson,
J. Schou & M. J. Thompson.

17.21: “A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor” by W. C. Livingston, M. Penn
& L. Svalgard.

18.04: “Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona” by R. C.
Altrock.

Heck, my power went out for an hour yesterday and I was dead in the water. A minor thing like that really drives home how unprepared I am to deal with *anything*.

For some sensible, down to earth advice and information on steps to take to prepare
for emergency, disaster or societal upheaval take amoment and look at this site:

How to Survive Hard Times
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It is the best single site I have found to help organize your thoughts and show
simple, effective, low cost things you can do without a large budget.

TOPICS:

1. What to Do Right Now if the Hard Times Have Begun and You are Not Prepared
2. How to Find Water and How to Make Water Safe to Drink
3. How to Build a Very Effective Water Filter System for Approxmiately $75
4. A Simple But Effective Survival Plan
5. Realistic Self-Sufficiency: The Do's and the Don'ts
6. Part One: How to Start Preparing for Hard Times on a Very Modest Budget
7. Part Two: How to Start Preparing for Hard Times on a Very Modest Budget
8. Use Common Sense to Compare Your Current Location to Another Location
9. How to Select the Optimal Retreat Location
10. A 30-Day Emergency Food Supply for One Adult
11. One-Year Emergency Food Supply for One Adult
12. Black Pepper, Peppercorns, and Peppercorn Grinders
13. Pure Salt, Iodized Salt, and Sea Salt
14. Coffee, Coffee Pots, and Coffee Bean Grinders
15. Wheat Grinders
16. The LEM #10 Hand-Cranked Stainless Steel Meat Grinder
17. How to Preserve Food Using Three Simple Old Fashioned Methods
18. How to Improve the Quality of an 1800s Lifestyle
19. Firewood, Fireplaces, and Cast Iron Stoves
20. Cast Iron Cookware
21. Shelf Life of Canned Food and Dry Food
22. Shelf Life of Medicine
23. During Hard Times Will You Accept God's Help?
24. Recommended Books for Home Schooling
25. Books: Emergency First Aid Books and Supplies.
26. Books: Recommended List of Books to Purchase Before the Hard Times Begin
27. The Basic Rules of Survival During Hard Times
28. The Basic Minimum Necessities for Survival During Hard Times
29. A List of 20 Common Mistakes That Should Be Avoided
30. A Comparison of Five Leading Brands of Toilet Tissue
31. The Grundig "Eton" G6 Aviator AM/FM/Aircraft/Shortwave Portable Radio
32. The Grundig "Eton" S350DL Deluxe AM/FM/Shortwave Radio - Added April 12, 2010.
33. Emerson Portable AM/FM Instant Weather Radio
34. Two-Way Communication: Cell Phones, Satellite Phones, and Two-Way Radios
35.Flashlights
36. Rechargeable Batteries and a Solar Battery Charger
37. Solar Power Generator
38. How to Build a Simple Sundial
39. During a Disaster Event Should You Stay at Home or Leave?
40. How to Effectively Evacuate a Big City Without a Car
41. An Emergency Evacuation List
42. Pets and Livestock
43. Bicycles for Emergency Transportation
44. Mopeds or Motorized Bicycles
45. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Recreational Vehicles and Campers
46. Charity During Hard Times
47. The Most Frequently Overlooked Items for Long-Term Hard Times Survival
48. Food Inflation Price Index Based on the One-Year Emergency Food Supply
49. Grandpappy's Homemade Soap Recipe
50. How to Melt Animal Fat and How to Clarify Used Cooking Grease
51. Ancient Board Games and Solitaire Games From Around the World
52. Grandpappy's Advice for a Successful, Happy, Prosperous Life
53. Ant Hills: A Simple Solution
54. How to Convert Human Waste into a Safe Garden Compost Fertilizer
55. Job Opportunities During Hard Times
56. Recipes for Hard Times, including Acorns, Hickory Nuts, Pemmican, Squirrel, and Wild Game.
57. Home Gardening Tips (Index of Articles).
58. Wilderness Survival Tips (Index of Articles).
59. Man and Society in Calamity, by author Pitirim A. Sorokin
60. The Pianist, by Wladyslaw Szpilman - Biography of a Young Civilian Who Survived World War 2
61.www.survivalblog.com (Web Site that has Some Hard Times Survival Information).
62.Free Preparedness Manual - LDS Free Online 222 Page Book on How to Prepare for Hard Times.

From "How to Survive Hard Times by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E."
At: http://www.grandpappy.info/indexhar.htm

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