My experience is that my wife and I agreed decades ago, that it is far better to file our return with a check for the balance due, than to give the Government any of our money to use, interest free, and then sit and hope they send us a “refund”.
Our benchmark is to owe the IRS $1000 or less.
We are always close to zero federal (owe the state though) but we got a refund this year due to medical deductions.