[Longbow1969]

We will see. I could be very wrong on all of this. If nothing else, it is at least interesting.

You make many good points, however I am still not convinced things are quite that bad. I concede they could be, but my outlook isn't yet as dire as yours. Things do have a way of working themselves out, and it is easy to focus only on the negative and begin assuming the worst about everything.

The main thing I'd suggest is that you be careful not to ignore positive trends and statistics where they exist. I've known people that felt sure we were on the verge of collapse, and it is almost as if they began hoping it would happen to prove they were right. You can really put yourself in a funk if you let yourself think that way unnecessarily.

Still, I don't really disagree with much of what you say. Things look pretty glum in my opinion too. The media is helping feed enough optimism into the public that consumer/public sentiment alone is helping prop things up. Another shock could be all it takes for the bubble to really burst. I guess I'd just say I am not really sure yet how things will go. Americans have gotten their act together before and moved this nation in a positive direction. It is possible we may yet rally and turn things around.

[jjsheridan5]

Good points all. I am also not fully convinced, either in outcome, or whether it is still preventable. Logically, I cannot see how we turn this around, but things almost always don't turn out that badly. That is what makes all of this so interesting.

A good example is the South American bubble of the late 1800's (IIRC), where London knew that the SA economies would collapse, but things just kept going on and on. The "imminent collapse" there took decades to actually happen.

Except for Europe. There I am convinced that there is no wildcard. But they made their bed, and, except for the small conservative segment of society, they are more than welcome to lie in it.