I appreciate your thoughtful opinion.
I was sure she was not running a while back, but I am not so sure now. The Republican field looks so pathetic now, especially with Newt on camera running making himself look stupid as usual,and so many Republicans believing Trump’s nonsense. Palin might just say “What the hell?”. Then again, she might not want to run if Bachman does. I wouldnt bet either way at the moment.
That would be a horrible piece of data to base a "run/don't run" decision on, as Bachmann has absolutely zero chance of winning the nomination, even in this weak field. I think Cain has no chance either, but he'll be a real contender long before Bachmann is.
In my opinion, the only "stumbling block" for Palin would have been Huckabee, not because they are similar, but because a significant portion of their respective bases overlap. With Huckabee out, that dramatically increases the odds of Palin being in, if indeed she is basing any part of her decision on the moves of the other potential candidates.