Posted on 04/25/2011 5:11:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
ATLANTA - [snip]
And this year, for the first time, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center will experiment with forecasting storms seven days in advance.
In addition to predicting where tropical storms and hurricanes will end up in a week, forecasters are working to predict when tropical storms will develop five days in advance.
The new forecasts could be accurate enough to unveil to the public in as early as two years, said Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center based in Miami. Brennan and several other hurricane scientists revealed their forecasting plans at the National Hurricane Conference last week in Atlanta.
[snip]
For example, the "cone of uncertainty," the common illustration showing where forecasters think a storm will travel within five days, will shrink 14 to 16 percent this year for days four and five because of improved accuracy.
[snip]
"One of the biggest problems we know we have is misinterpretation of the cone as it is now," Read said. People tend to forget that the track forecast shows only the center of the storm, not its actual size. A large storm can stretch more than 100 miles beyond the center depicted in the cone. As improved accuracy shrinks the cone, that confusion has become harder to combat.
The cone is actually made up of circles around forecast points. The width of the cone at each point represents uncertainty, based on how far off forecasts were in the previous five years. Statistically, a third of storms are expected to move outside the cone.
Last year at day five the cone's width extended 657 miles, or 328 miles from the center. This year it will span 550 miles, for a 16 percent reduction. In 2003, the cone's width at day five was 1,010 miles.[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at heraldtribune.com ...
Beginning in 2011, the NHC will experiment with forecasting storms seven days in advance.
The forecast "cone of uncertainty" will shrink 14-16% for days 4 and 5.
Because of the way weather prognostication has become theater these days, I’d trade the “Cone of Uncertainty” for a “Cone of Silence”. Please give me the facts without all the other “stuff”.
Will they stop predicting “Worst Hurricane Season Ever” every season in hopes of garnering kudos when it eventually comes to pass?
Will Obama criticize Hurricane Speculators for driving up the cost of goods???
No, because in so doing they help the AGW crowd's propaganda outreach effort.
With 24/7 news and weather channels thriving on death and destruction, it seems unlikely we’ll see a reduction of doom and gloom forecasts.
wake me up when there’s a cat 4 or 5, otherwise its all chicken little stuff
Well they missed predicting “Worst Hurricane Season Ever” in 2004 so they are hoping for a do-over.
2010 was a very active tropical storm season. Fortunately, none of the 12 hurricanes (including 5 major hurricanes) reached the U.S. mainland. Only Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall in the U.S.
“I’d trade the “Cone of Uncertainty” for a “Cone of Silence”.
Good idea. “The Cone of Silence” would keep the hysterical media from causing travel cancellations and financial ruin to the tourist industry. Unfortunately, now the NWS will start caterwauling even earlier, so that means more cancellations, most of them unnecessary.
Count on it. Obama needs to place blame on anyone and anything for economic failure under his watch.
That was 2005...
They missed it in 2005 as well.
I just wish someone would predict us some rain. Sad thing is though, we will probably have to wait for a storm to bring it.
Will hold my opinion until after I’ve seen it in practice.
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