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More ...see #4:

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Geoff Sherrington says:

February 2, 2011 at 3:45 pm

Jeff Norman says:
February 2, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Assuming this temperature trend is correct and taking into account that temperature is only a proxy for the heat energy in the Earth fluidsphere, where did the heat energy go? As my thermodynamics professor always proclaimed, “The heat goes to Mars!”
And assuming the temperature spikes back up again, where was the heat hiding?
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My question also. Last time I asked it I got a few short messages saying “Look at that bright object in the sky and think”. However, it is more complicated than that. AGW suggests that a warming change should be irreversible in the sort term, with reduction in GHG the main way to lower the temp. Here, we have temperatures lowering with increasing GHG. The mechanism, by elimination, must be that the fluctuations we have been measuring are transient weather noise and noise goes up and down in the sort term, much as seasons do.

So, do we have a conservative system of constant total global heat content, with weather noise wiggles, or are we seeing systematic changes such as those that would result from insolation variability? (I’me leaving out geometric effects such as orbital cycles here).

One can’t simply say “It’s wet because of La Nina”, because that might mean it is less wet somewhere else. That is, ocean oscillations are not the end of the story; they are but a step among several steps when viewed globally.

It actually is all starting to make a little sense. The first thing you need to do is to assume the AGW crowd got everything wrong. And I mean just about everything. So disregard CO2 as a GHG. It is insignificant by density. Just watch what happens with water vapor, the dominant GHG. During the 2008/2009 El Nino, we experienced a very wet winter and warm summer. Water vapor GHG increased by up to 5 % positive anomaly during the last El Nino. The warm summer was due to the water vapor GHG increase from El Nino.

Then we switched to La Nina. The US eventually followed into cold this fall/winter. Now the entire globe is colder then normal. The last La Nina resulted in up to a negative 5 % anomaly in water vapor density. So the atmospheric density decreased and so did its heat capacity. Right now the question is when will this winter end ? We have another major blast of Arctic air coming this Sunday night and we were supposed to warm up before then.