
Angle in Nevada. I don’t know if that proves or disproves your point.
A lot of things had to happen right for Christine to win. Most of them didn’t happen.
A Christine victory was predicated on a very low Democrat turnout. A lot of pre election polls were showing that. But it didn’t happen in Delaware. Obama went there, there are lots of blacks in Delaware. Instead of staying home, they were enthused by Obama and voted for Coons. 95% of them. Huge black turnout, 95% for Coons. That was the biggest factor.
She lost by a lot, not a blowout, but a lot, and much of that was the black vote.
The 1% that Karl Rove and the neocons might’ve effected were necessary for a win. It’s arguable that the screwup with the video at the end would’ve moved more voters than Karl Rove. Needed all of these things to win.
2nd was the uncooperativeness of the Delaware GOP. Apparently the Delaware GOP did not help with GOTV at all.
It’s usually assumed, I think, that the state party is going to do its thing, and they didn’t this time. I’m guessing that the overall GOTV was lacking.
3rd was the uncooperativeness of Mike Castle. He didn’t endorse Christine. Typically there’s party unity after the primaries. This time no. And Castle was more popular with the huge number of “moderates” in Delaware than Karl Rove.
If you wanted to lump together “moderates/neocons attacking Christine” as one category, Karl Rove would be a small part of that category.