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Windows Phone 7 won’t hit double-digit market share, says analyst

Despite a flashy product launch and hundreds of millions of dollars in marketing planned to boost Windows Phone 7 sales, its market share won’t reach even 10% in 2011, says a Goldman Sachs technology analyst. And the news for Microsoft gets worse from there.

Goldman Sachs technology analyst Sarah Friar wrote in a research note released this weekend that 2011 will be “more challenging year” than 2010 for Microsoft, according to the TechFlash blog. Top-line growth, she wrote, will fall to seven percent in 2011 from 12 percent in 2010.

The reason? Microsoft still hasn’t figured out a tablet strategy, and Windows Phone 7 will make little headway against Android and the iPhone, not even reaching double-digit market share. According to TechFlash, here’s what Friar wrote:

“A tablet response is still not forth-coming and our early read on Windows Phone 7 has not yet changed our view that Microsoft’s share in mobile OSes will remain at only the single-digit level. For an unlocking of shareholder value, we continue to look for a more aggressive dividend, a more focused consumer strategy, and stronger Cloud-Azure traction.”

The Windows Phone 7 launch has not gone the way Microsoft planned, and has been hurt by poor sales, the indifference of some retailers, and spot product shortages.

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Bad news?

They are starting from 0, and considering what “single digit” % is in terms of the total number of smartphones, that could be 10s of millions.

Also, Android started from the exact same point in 2008 and didnt hit double-digits until the past year.

Microsoft never stated that they would have 44% of the market in the span of a few months. Only people that want Microsoft to disappear, and kids that talk smack on the internet, thinks that was their aim in their first year.

And besides if “single digits” was a terrible place to be, then someone tell that to Apple so they can stop selling OSX.