Posted on 11/23/2010 10:14:59 PM PST by Patrick1
Sarah Palin seems to be the favorite of the majority of Free Republic members. I still have not made up my mind about her. But if she is the consevative movement's choice to take on the disaster of Obama who has gone from The Messiah to the Mess then there are things that she will need to overcome to get 50% plus one of the American people's vote in 2012. I've listed the ones I hope her supporters can address here because failure to take these issues on will result in certain defeat.
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
1) Quitting as governor after only two years. (Ronald Reagan served eight)
This is a genuine difficulty for her, because she broke her commitment to the people of Alaska for no good reason. She appears to have wanted to become a gadfly celebrity rather than to server out her term. (BTW, George W. Bush served about six years as Governor of Texas before being elected the 43rd President.)2) The normal perception of any conservative by the MSM that she is stupid.
This one doesn't concern me because the MSM and the Left always paint prominent Republicans as stupid. It's been going on for decades, usually without any real effect. Palin's problem will not be this, but the fact that quitting the governorship like she did makes her appear shallow and unreliable, as well as intent on cultivating celebrity and making money over keeping her electoral commitments. No one held a gun to her head and forced her to run for governor. When she won, she should have filled out a four-year term.3) No history of statements on public policy issues prior to 2008.
I don't think this will hurt her either, at least not much. After all, Obama's resume was as thin as Japanese rice paper. When a person runs for president, it's not so much what they discussed in the past that matters, but what vision they articulate for the present and future.4) Overexposure that often appears unpresidential.
This one does hurt, because it just reinforces her gadfly quality. On a darker note, there were ethical questions surrounding her brief governorship, and one has to wonder if that's the real reason she quit so abruptly.5) No political base either regionally or politically. (Obama had blacks and college kids for example, Reagan had men. Obama had Illinois and California, Reagan had California, the West and South)
I'm not sure it's true that she has no political base. Her base is the populist and self-professed "real" conservative wings of the Right in this country. To a considerable extent, although not exclusively so, these are the people who voted for Perot and Buchanan, or for any Right-wing minority party, or who are often too disgruntled to vote at all. On their own, they can't win elections, but they sure can help provide the winning margin to any Republican who captures their imagination and loyalty. Palin definitely has done that. In fact, Palin shares some qualities in common with both Perot and Buchanan.6) Appeal to independents, in 2010 independents left Obama for anyone else, will they do the same in 2012 if Palin is the nominee?
This is a tougher one to predict, only because independents are, by definition, unpredictable. Palin is going to have to start making herself more appealing to Americans other than people typified by the denzens of FR. If she's serious about running, she's going to have to start doing that soon, with serious policy speeches, overseas trips, and so on. But who knows, maybe she's counting on shallow celebrity to win her the presidency. If so, I sure as heck will not be voting for her. Not in these perilous times.7) What is her big issue and how does she explain it? (I don't think the I'm not Obama will work for her or anyone else all by itself.)
Good question, and one only she can answer. Like I said in #6, she's going to have to start seriously addressing the big issues of the day pretty soon. Glib one-liners, sparkly, winsome smiles, and a gadfly celebrity persona won't cut it. At some point, if she decides to run, she will have hard-hitting opponents -- opponents who are, even now, digging into her background to find whatever they can use against her. Running for the presidency ain't beanbag. It's the seriously big time, and at some point she's going to have to prepare herself for all of it.
40% is conservative. she needs 10%+1
According to PEW Research, Independents voted (R) by a margin of +19% in the 2010 midterms. In 2006, Independents had voted (D) by a margin of +7%. That's a shift of +26% to (R) among Independents from 2006 to 2010.
All of these current polls showing Palin lagging in Independent support are garbage; push-polling from the PDS ranks.
I agree with all you/ve said ... personally. That's all great stuff for a conservative looking for a quality conservative candidate.
What I'm looking for (I think in vain) from this thread is a rationale that explains how she attracts the independent voter. Not the conservative like you or me.
“Exactly. Obama will be a pushover by ‘12.”
Don’t count on it. It may even be true but it is bad idea to expect everything to be a walk in the park.
Harry Reid was re-elected in 2010.
Blacks still support Obama.
Plus the Laura S thing, made many of them turn against her.
You do realize that the A in AG stands for Attorney, right?
what about Chairman of AK Mayor, and Chairman of GOP GOV, Head Regulation of Oil And Gas. And negotiated the largest pipeline project in US history, something thats been delayed for decades. Don’t they count for something? The AK GOV job is equivalent of running a major corporation
Frankly, I think that possibility will be coming to a screeching halt after this year ends.
She cut over $1billion in government spending over Gov Murkowski, which was saved for a raining day. She made all government spending over $1k posted online so that its transparent
I agree with all you’ve said. Furthermore yours is the most intelligent post on this thread.
The only thing I’ll take issue with is I get the feeling you believe I might be among those who would disuade her from running. The exact opposite is the truth.
The thread was posted regarding how she would overcome certain issues. I see that there are some issues in the public mind that will probably need to be addressed. I only have been seeking FReeper input on how they can be addressed.
Thats your mistake. Don't ask how "she" attracts the independent. Ask how any conservative attracts the independent voter. You don't do it by hiding your light under a bushel. You do it by going bold. You do it by persuading. You can't persuade people of principles you are embarrassed of or persuade them of principles you would prefer to evade in order to avoid scaring the independents.
Just remember this last election. Conservatives did pretty well. We need to keep pushing forward. Don't worry if Palin is the flag-bearer or some other person. Worry that the flag-bearer is someone who actually believes in the founding principles and is someone who is prepared to fight.
You have to have noticed that there are several people toying with the idea of throwing their hat in the ring but who were quiet during the fight that led up to November 2. When O was spiking the ball over the net, some folks were quiet and some were in the fight. Choose someone who was in the fight.
Get your eye off Palin and get your eye on the Obamists. Fight them until its time to choose between Repubs, and when that time comes, pick someone who was in the fight when it mattered. If there is someone you consider to be more electable, and they are in the fight, then good; you know who to support. If your favorite "electable" is waiting until election season and letting others take the slings and arrows, then they are no leader, however electable you might think they are.
It doesn’t work that way. People are more loyal to ideology than gender or race. Obama is weak with men, so that must be bad news?
She is vetted and has been fighting the media for over 2 years and anyone else will now be vetted and would be hated as much as Sarah.
Remember how they loved McCain until he became the nominee or course hey didn't half to hate as much because he didn't have a chance.
Palin IS THE BEST WE HAVE IF WE WANT A CONSERVATIVE!
No need to read any further. This sentence forfeits all credibility.
would probably feel excited about her is she went on the Rachel Maddow show or Keith Olbermann show
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Did you forget the sarcasm tag? Why would she go on those low ratings loser shows? Both are nobodies. I would think less of her if she did.
“IF you remember, her book was assigned to 12 fact checkers who were bent on finding errors. Something that other authors, such as Obama, don’t have to face.”
That would be 12 AP fact checkers, and Obama will never face that amount of scrutiny.
“At some point, if she decides to run, she will have hard-hitting opponents — opponents who are, even now, digging into her background to find whatever they can use against her.”
They better not. They need to make their case for themselves because people are just sick and tired of the false attacks made against her from day 1. And I think that those attacks are a major reason why some people are just so loyal to her.
But we have to drop the emotional attachments and ask ourselves: who will be the best person for the job when there’s another Katrina or a BP oil spill or a major financial meltdown or a war between North and South Korea?
Woman. Mom. Outsider. Attractive. What more do you need?
“Bob Dole, McCain.”
To be fair, there was a Bush...twice...inbetween those two.
Though, I wasn’t happy with some of his decisions in his last term, he was at least a decent man who loves this country.
And...he had a classy first lady by his side.
Not so...Obama.
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