College polls make for good threads but not good polls
15% undecided is a large amount? Looks like they might have been for Toomey but now decided to be undecided now, blah blah blah....
This poll and the PPP are both bogus. Don’t lose heart.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/10/20/2nd-poll-shows-toomey-falling-behind-sestak-in-pa/
Don’t you believe it. Yeah, by all means keep Sandy Berger favorite Sestak out of the Senate, but this poll is probably inaccurate.
The poll is crap. A minuscule sample size. Wait for the next Rasmussen.
It’s not true. Look at who took the poll. Do you see them polling a lot? Do you see their polls quoted as accurate?
The press is happy to grab anything that point to what they want and wave it around.
Even if the methodology is solid, there is still generally a 1 in 20 chance that a poll like this will just give wrong data (the second part of the “margin of error). A poll in that case is an “outlier”, as it lies outside of the area of confidence.
Show me a Gallup, Rassmussen or Mason-Dixon poll showing Sestak ahead and I would get concerned.
I do not believe it and neither should you.
LLS
Poll, schmoll. The real poll is November 2nd. These bogus polls are just for the sake of deflating the Tea Party movement. Keep the faith! Keep pushing! Don’t let ‘em get to you!
Ten to one they polled their Political "Science" Department.
"Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pennsylvania Senate: Toomey (R) Grows Lead Over Sestak (D)
" Thursday, October 14, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThisRepublican Pat Toomey now holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, the widest gap between the candidates since early April in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey earning 49% of the vote, while Sestak picks up 39% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, but a sizable 10% remain undecided less than three weeks before Election Day. "
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate
Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate
Pat Toomey (R) 49%
Joe Sestak (D) 39%
Some Other Candidate 2%
Not sure 10%
Did they change their formula/ratio like the PPP did?
The PP went from a 46d/44r to 48d, 41r and tried to highlight the “jump” for Sestak
Toomey wins this race by seven. This will not be a late nighter.
the Purple Shirted Gestapo (SEIU) has taken over this race in our absence
Did anyone see the Sleezeball Muhlenberg Professor that is responsible for this alleged poll? He was just on a local Reading Station looking like he hadn’t shaved in days! The guy is on quite bait and is a Zillion Miles to the Left of OBOZO AND WILLIAM AYERS! This is his moment of Infamy along with the Horrid Morning Call which is absolutely terrible! The only good part of the Morning Trash is the Obituaries! That said, We gotta be expecting massive Demorat Voter Fraud Statewide and Especially in Rendell’s Hell Hole! Filthedelphia!
http://www.mcall.com/media/acrobat/2010-10/56899431.pdf
Lots of weirdness in that poll.
90% of respondents are over 40!
Check the other polls in the race in the past 3 months. They have been static with Toomey leading on the average of 7-8 points and getting close to 50% in the past few Ras polls. Now we have a 12-14 pt. swing in just one week. Too much special sauce in that one for me.
Also, compare the Toomey polls to the Corbett (R for Gov.) polls (RCP is a good reference point). Corbett has been doing a bit better than Toomey, with an average 10 pt. advantage these past few months. There’s no indication that Corbett-Onorato has tightened up, so we are to believe that Corbet wins by 10 pts. and then PA voters turn around and vote for Sestak by 5 pts>? Doesn’t pass the smell test.
Stick with Ras. and the consistent picture - disregard this propaganda.
The MOE is 5%.