I might be flamed for this, but IMO, we should not interpret this as ‘independent become conservatives’ either. Many of those independents are sick of 0bama policies, and some even explicitly want a divided government. This means we cannot expect that if a conservative Republican Congress ascend in 2011, voters will automatically vote for 0bama’s opponent in 2012. If they have ‘divided government’ in mind, they will keep 0bama only for the sake of division.
You shouldn’t get flamed. You make a darned good point.
These Indies are not a monolithic group, by any stretch of the imagination. There are probably two major groups: 1) those who bought into the hopey/changey and/or suffered from white guilt and wanted a black guy to win but regret their vote now and, 2) those who voted for Obama as a repudiation of Bush-to teach the GOP a lesson.
IMO, the 2) group will the the easiest group to win and keep, if the GOP plays its cards right.
The 1) group votes on a purely emotional basis and are easily duped. This is the hardest group to win and keep because they are easily deceived by hucksters and slick talkers.
I’ve never bought into the idea that voters pre-plan divided government. What they will do is vote for people who will push back an agenda they feel has gone too far one way or the other. The divided government is not pre-planned, but is a reaction.
Independents are morons. Their voting habits prove it.