Then you’ve convinced me.
The only abstract factor that could play is the ‘playoff stage jitters’.
The Phillies KNOW what waits beyond. The GIANTS don’t.
The only abstract factor that could play is the ‘playoff stage jitters’.Neither do the Reds, actually. (Only one Reds pitcher, Bronson Arroyo, has postseason experience.)The Phillies KNOW what waits beyond. The GIANTS don’t.
That said, teams coming into a postseason with no knowledge of what waits beyond have acquitted themselves very handsomely. That acquittal only began with the 1914 Boston Braves; it only continued with the 1919 Reds (I'm convinced there is no reason why that team couldn't have beaten the White Sox in an unfixed fight), the 1939 Tigers, the 1948 Indians, the 1964 Cardinals, the 1966 Orioles, and it only reached a staggering apogee with the 1969 Mets, the 1984 Tigers, the 1990 Reds, the 1997 Marlins, and the 2002 Angels. These were teams that weren't supposed to survive their postseasons when they got there (the 1914 Braves, the 1919 Reds*, the 1969 Mets, and the 1990 Reds especially), but did.
That gives the Giants at minimum a 50-50 chance of shaking off the jitters. With their pitching, their revived veterans, and their solid enough youth, they could shake them off well and swift.
They lost their season series against the Braves by one game but they split the season series with the Phillies and beat the Reds in their season series by a game. The Giants really do have about a 50-50 chance and maybe a little bit more.
By the way: They faced all three of the Phillies' top postseason starters on the season and beat them every time out (Roy Oswalt twice; Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, once each). Granted the postseason is a different season, but that factoid too takes a little first-time jitter edge off the Giants, if they get far enough to meet the Phillies in the NLCS . . .