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Karl simply didn't think through the entire equation. Here we had on one hand a guy in his 70s whose been elected to statewide office time after time as a Republican.

Eventually that sort of thing comes to an end.

Was this the time? Call that question #1.

Usually any candidate winning on the Republican brand needs a high majority of the available Republican votes ~ from all factions. The candidate will also usually need some percentage of the available Democrat votes. This is why it's usually said a candidate must appeal to all sides to get elected.

Was it the case that the guy under consideration could count on winning a high percentage of the available Republican votes in a test against a Democrat? Was it possible for the candidate to draw in at least a modicum of Democrat votes? Call that Question #2.

I think if we can address these two questions we can put Karl Rove's problems to rest ~ and also bring a close to his long run as a relatively successful political analyst and tactician. Question #1 ~ Was the candidate too old, or his career at an end?

This is a tough one. Older candidates have won other races. Inasmuch as his entire elective career encompassed periods of positive economic performance (compared to the current period) and this election is being held against the backdrop of a really serious economic catastrophe, I'd have to say he had actually never been tested.

This is described as a turn against incumbency ~ and true enough, incumbents are having some real problems lately. Castle would not be alone in having been an immensely popular politician earlier in his career and yet someone the public would like to get rid of this time. Question #2 ~ Was the candidate going to get a high majority of Republican votes as well as enough Democrat votes to win?

As was demonstrated in the primary, Castle, with a record Republican primary turnout, LOST.

The latest insurgent group, the TEA Party was quite willing to NOT vote for him in the general election thereby depriving him of the very high percentage of Republican votes he needed to win.

As if that wasn't enough, the Democrats had planned to run only a token candidate against Castle ~ and did so. There's a serious question about that candidate's chance of winning in any case ~ as well as his ability to attract traditional Democrat voters!

He is not a good candidate to oppose any Republican candidate.

The conclusion is that a younger, more Conservative candidate actually had a real opportunity to win in Delaware, and possibly win in a future election. Castle, in contrast, even if he won, this would have been his last election, and a future Republican candidate 6 years from now would probably not have as good a chance to win as Ms. O'Donnell today!

He who hesitates is lost. Strike while the iron is hot. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. A stitch in time saves nine. Etc.

O'Donnell had the best chance any Conservative would ever have AND she had the best chance any Republican could have in this particular election in the face of the worst economic catastrophe of modern times. The Democrat burden was too heavy for the Democrat to overcome. The Republican wins.