[Global2010]

Our local weather up in the PNW is already claiming we will leave the El Nino (mild/warm) year and go into El Nina (cold/snowy) early year.

I prefer the EL Dude. Had a great year getting out to events.

Hope they are very wrong and El Nino sticks around for another year.

[justa-hairyape]

We are already in a strong La Nina. But in reality, El Nino does not mean the Earth (Oceans+Atmosphere) is experiencing net warming. El Nino means the Atmosphere is experiencing strong heat transfer from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. And La Nina does not mean the Earth (Oceans+Atmosphere) is experiencing net cooling. La Nina means the Atmosphere is experiencing weak heat transfer from the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino/La Nina are just phenomenon when heat transfer from the Equatorial Pacific is at one of its two extremes.

The real problem you have in the PNW is the PDO. That is a longer term ocean temperature trend. You can see both the La Nina and the PDO in the image below.

As can be seen below we are in the classic cool phase of the PDO. Warm phase is on the left. Cool phase is on the right. We have the exact cool phase conditions. Actually a very strong cool phase condition. In fact the PDO could be significantly adding to the cool shallow water conditions of the La Nina. Gonna get cold this winter in the atmosphere of North America.

Below are the typical shallow sea temps for El Nino (top) and La Nina (bottom).

We have been in a cold PDO phase for most of the past 6-8 years. That was probably why we got so much snow last winter when the El Nino popped up. El Nino moisture combined with PDO cold. This winter we see what happens when La Nina combines with PDO cold. Should see bitter bitter cold. That is what they have down in South America right now.